How do you analyze competing hypotheses?

How do you analyze competing hypotheses?

Step-by-Step Outline of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities. 2) Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. 3) Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence down the side.

What are the two competing hypotheses?

– The “threat” hypothesis suggests increasing social diversity increases hostility among different groups. – The “contact” hypothesis posits that higher levels of heterogeneity are associated with less conflict and ethnic/racial hostility.

What is a competitive hypothesis?

Short Description. • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) is a multi- variable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions.

What is the purpose of analysis of competing hypotheses?

Purpose: To complete the ACH steps of hypothesis generation and evidence development. General. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, ACH, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems.

What is ACH in intelligence analysis?

Continuing our discussion of the structured analytic techniques toolbox, we come to Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), which is an unbiased methodology that identifies a set of hypotheses and systematically evaluates data that is consistent or inconsistent with each hypothesis.

Can you have multiple alternative hypotheses?

The alternative hypothesis can be either one-sided or two sided. Use a two-sided alternative hypothesis (also known as a nondirectional hypothesis) to determine whether the population parameter is either greater than or less than the hypothesized value.

What is an ACH matrix?

The matrix helps the analyst to identify which evidence is most diagnostic in refuting hypotheses and to gain an intuitive sense of the relative likelihood of the hypotheses. Automated ACH. Automating the matrix enables the analyst to categorize and sort evidence in additional analytically useful ways.

What are the three types of structured analytic techniques?

Diagnostic techniques are primarily aimed at making analytic arguments, assumptions, or intelligence gaps more transparent; Contrarian techniques explicitly challenge current thinking; and. Imaginative thinking techniques aim at developing new insights, different perspectives and/or develop alternative outcomes.

What are the null and alternative hypotheses?

In statistical hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.